The Shifting Sands of Middle East Geopolitics: Israel's Uncertain Future in a New Saudi-Iranian Order

The Emergence of a New Saudi-Iranian Order

The Middle East is undergoing a significant transformation as Saudi Arabia and Iran move towards a new order, one that excludes the United States and Israel. This shift is driven by the realization that containing and isolating Iran has failed, producing a disastrous war that exposed the unreliability and limits of the U.S. security umbrella. Instead, regional states are pursuing economic interdependence with Iran while incorporating Tehran into a new, region-led security architecture.

The Role of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has emerged as the driving force behind this shift, preparing to host the GCC states and Iran for talks on a regional non-aggression pact, maritime security, and confidence-building measures modeled on Europe's 1975 Helsinki Accords. The broader objective is a new Middle East security architecture rooted more in regional cooperation and less in U.S. military guarantees.

The Implications for Israel

The emergence of a new Saudi-Iranian order poses significant challenges for Israel. The region's leaders risk creating an anti-Abraham Accords organized around containing Israel, pushing it towards international isolation. Israel's current calculation—that the costs of ending the occupation outweigh the benefits—is likely to shift once a functioning regional security order is in place and Israelis can clearly observe the strategic and economic dividends of a fundamental change in course.

The Path to Rehabilitation

Greater regional cohesion to pressure Israel is both justified and necessary. However, neither isolation nor pressure alone is likely to fundamentally alter Israeli calculations unless they are paired with a credible pathway to rehabilitation. The Better Order Project has laid out a pathway for this, which includes a process to end the occupation of Palestine, building on U.N. General Assembly Resolution ES-10/24 and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion of July 2024.

A New Regional Security Architecture

A permanent, formal organization should be set up to facilitate diplomacy and manage the region's security. Initial steps should focus on integrating more countries into existing economic and political arrangements, such as trade agreements and energy collaboration. Instead of excluding Israel from this architecture, the door to Israel's inclusion should be kept wide open but on the condition that Israel fully implements the ICJ ruling and ends the occupation.

The Price of Admission

The price of admission for Israel must be clear and uncompromising: not a pathway toward Palestinian statehood or a vague political horizon, but the actual establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state based on the 1967 lines. The two processes should advance in parallel, but neither should be allowed to hold the other hostage.

Conclusion

The Middle East is at a crossroads, and the region's leaders have a unique opportunity to leave a lasting legacy. By thinking bigger, they can ensure that the collapse of the old order gives rise to something far more stable and durable. They can seize this moment not only to resolve the principal source of instability in the Persian Gulf—Iran's exclusion—but also to address the central source of instability in the Middle East: Israel's continued occupation of Palestine.

Editor's Note: The analysis is based on the assumption that the region's leaders will seize this moment to create a more stable and durable order.

Source referenced: FOREIGNPOLICY

This brief was synthesized by our Editorial Engine and reviewed by The Ground Narrative team.