Ethiopia on the Brink: The Unraveling of the Pretoria Agreement

The Unraveling of the Pretoria Agreement

The Pretoria Agreement, signed on November 3, 2022, between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), marked a significant milestone in the quest for peace in Ethiopia. The agreement, facilitated by the African Union, brought an end to the devastating conflict that had ravaged the country for years. However, the fragile peace is now on the verge of collapse as extremist elements within the TPLF and the Amhara Fano militia, backed by Eritrea, seek to derail the agreement.

The Role of Eritrea

Eritrea, under the leadership of President Isaias Afwerki, has long been a thorn in the side of Ethiopia. The country's history of supporting rebel and militant groups against the Ethiopian state has created a deep-seated mistrust between the two nations. The Eritrean government's opposition to the Pretoria Agreement is not surprising, given its desire to see Ethiopia weakened and fractured.

The TPLF's Hardline Rump

The TPLF's hardline rump, backed by Eritrea, has decided to launch an offensive against the federal government in the coming days. This move is a clear violation of the Pretoria Agreement, which called for a permanent cessation of hostilities. The rump TPLF has dismantled the regional interim administration and set up its own illegal administration, continued recruiting, training, and arming a sizeable fighting force with the direct support of the Eritrean government.

The International Community's Response

The international community must act swiftly to prevent a relapse into conflict. A clear, categorical, and uncompromising message from the international community that the steps the TPLF and its backers in Asmara are taking to tear up the Pretoria Agreement in a violent and potentially irreversible manner are unacceptable is necessary. The Pretoria Agreement, although imperfect, was an agreement that silenced the guns and enabled the return of a degree of normalcy in a region ravaged by war.

The Consequences of a Relapse into Conflict

A resumption of hostilities would be dangerous and would have serious regional consequences. The TPLF should not be allowed to once again resort to violence and gamble with the lives of so many young women and men. The people of the Tigray regional state have categorically rejected the war agenda and the reckless belligerence of the rump TPLF. However, taking a few pages from the Eritrean playbook, the TPLF is now engaged in forced conscription and trying to turn Tigray into another 'dystopia of liberation'.

Conclusion

The fragile peace in Ethiopia is on the brink of collapse. The international community must act swiftly to prevent a relapse into conflict. A clear and uncompromising message from the international community is necessary to prevent the TPLF and its backers in Asmara from tearing up the Pretoria Agreement in a violent and potentially irreversible manner.

Editor's Note: The analysis is based on publicly available information and may not reflect the full complexity of the situation on the ground.

Source referenced: ALJAZEERA

This brief was synthesized by our Editorial Engine and reviewed by The Ground Narrative team.