What Happened
Anti-government protests have erupted in Tunisia and Libya in response to power cuts and extreme heat, with demonstrators demanding better living conditions and, in some cases, the removal of their governments. The protests in Libya were sparked by 14-hour power cuts and rising oil prices, while in Tunisia, they were driven by rolling blackouts, water cuts, and the fifth anniversary of President Kais Saied's power grab.
The Power Mechanics
The protests in North Africa are not just about power cuts; they are about the underlying structural issues that have led to these crises. In Libya, years of underinvestment in critical infrastructure have resulted in an electricity crisis, despite the country being a petrostate. In Tunisia, the economy has collapsed under Saied's rule, with high youth unemployment and low GDP growth. The power mechanics at play involve a complex interplay of economic mismanagement, government corruption, and external influences. The US, for instance, has been exerting pressure on Chad to withdraw from the International Criminal Court, which could have implications for the region's stability.
The Human Cost
The human cost of these protests and the underlying crises is significant. In Tunisia, between 150 and 200 people have died since power cuts began, and extreme heat has triggered over 900 wildfires. In Libya, protesters have shut down branches of the central bank and forced the Mellitah Oil and Gas complex to suspend operations. The people bearing the brunt of these crises are not just the protesters but also the ordinary citizens who are struggling to access basic services like electricity and water.
The Untold Story
What is being downplayed or omitted in the official statements is the role of external actors in exacerbating these crises. The US pressure on Chad to withdraw from the International Criminal Court, for instance, could be seen as an attempt to undermine the court's authority and protect its own interests. Similarly, the involvement of other external actors, such as Russia's Africa Corps in Mali, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The fact that these protests are not just about domestic issues but also about the regional and global power dynamics at play is often overlooked.
What to Watch
As the situation in North Africa continues to unfold, there are several key developments to watch. The US's plans for military action in Mali, for instance, could have significant implications for the region's stability. The ongoing power struggle in Senegal between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and his ally-turned-rival Ousmane Sonko could also lead to further unrest. Meanwhile, the economic crisis in Tunisia and Libya shows no signs of abating, and the human cost of these crises will only continue to rise unless there are significant changes in the way these countries are governed.
