Saudi Arabia's Self-Inflicted Wounds in the Middle East

What Happened

Saudi Arabia's latest escalation with the Houthis, which began on July 13 when the Saudi Air Force allegedly bombed the runway at Sanaa International Airport, is a prime example of the kingdom's self-inflicted woes. The strike was intended to prevent the landing of an Iranian Mahan Air flight conveying a Houthi delegation back from the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, this move has sparked a series of retaliatory attacks by the Houthis, including the firing on Abha International Airport and oil facilities in Jazan.

The Power Mechanics

At the heart of Saudi Arabia's problems is a lack of strategic forethought. The kingdom's leaders have been driven by emotions and a desire for regional stability, rather than a clear understanding of the complex power dynamics at play. This has led to a series of missteps, including the alienation of potential allies, such as the United Arab Emirates, and the failure to capitalize on opportunities, like Israel's recognition of Somaliland. The Saudis have also been let down by their allies, including the United States, which has failed to provide consistent support.

The Human Cost

The human cost of Saudi Arabia's struggles with Iran and the Houthis has been significant. The conflict has led to the displacement of thousands of people, the destruction of infrastructure, and a significant humanitarian crisis. The people of Yemen, in particular, have borne the brunt of the conflict, with many struggling to access basic necessities like food and healthcare. The conflict has also had a significant impact on the global economy, with the disruption of oil supplies and the increased risk of regional instability.

The Untold Story

What is often downplayed in discussions of the conflict is the role of external actors, such as the United States, in exacerbating the situation. The Trump administration's decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and its subsequent failure to provide consistent support to Saudi Arabia have created a power vacuum that has been filled by Iran and its allies. The Saudis have also been criticized for their own role in perpetuating the conflict, including their bombing of civilian targets and their failure to provide adequate humanitarian assistance.

What to Watch

As the conflict continues to escalate, there are several key developments to watch. The first is the response of the international community, including the United States, to the growing crisis. The second is the ability of Saudi Arabia to develop a more effective strategy for dealing with the Houthis and Iran. The third is the potential for the conflict to spread to other parts of the region, including the Gulf States and Israel. Ultimately, the key to resolving the conflict will be a negotiated settlement that takes into account the interests of all parties involved.

Editor's Note: The analysis is based on publicly available information and may not reflect the full complexity of the situation on the ground.

Source referenced: FOREIGNPOLICY

This brief was synthesized by our Editorial Engine and reviewed by The Ground Narrative team.